What is the trend of China real estate in 2018? Will the regulation policy be relaxed again?
2017 is about to pass, and the regulation policy of the China real estate in 2018 has become a popular topic of concern. At present, the possibility of policy relaxation is not significant. In December 23rd, Wang Menghui, Minister of housing and construction at the National Conference on housing and urban rural construction, said that next year, differentiated regulation policies should be implemented for all kinds of needs to meet the first set of rigid demand, support and improve demand, and curb speculative speculation.
In fact, since 2017, with the intensive regulation of China real estate policies, house prices have ended rapidly and the investment in China real estate development has slowed down further. Under the guidance of the spirit of “housing without frying”, where will the real estate market in 2018 go? The China Index Research Institute of market research institutions and the chain family research institute have all received interviews with journalists and made their own comments on the future trend of the property market. In a unified sense, industry experts generally believe that 2017 will become the tail of the “super boom period”. China real estate market is expected to remain stable under the pressure of regulation.
Policy: there is no possibility of loosening
From the hot to the cold, the most critical factors of the property market are a series of combination punches, the restriction of demand side, the strict control of the supply side, the deleveraging of the credit side, and so on. But at the same time, because the market regulation had been tightened and loosened first, so how long can this regulation policy last?
In this regard, China Index Institute analysts told reporters that, in a short time, will not be able to see the policy loosening. The regulatory layer has repeatedly stressed that the regulation of the property market will establish a long-term mechanism. Long term mechanism construction meets the key period, the long-term operation environment in the market is gradually established, and the short-term control will not be relaxed.
In addition, the future of the property market policy is still the continuation of “the house was used to live, not to stir the clear line, adhere to the regulation unwavering goal, efforts do not relax, the continuous stability of regulatory policy, to stabilize the real estate market bubble, resolve the risk as a priority among priorities, to guide market expectations.
Yang Xianling, the dean of chain Market Research Institute, also believes that at the end of the year, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee analyzed and studied the economic work in 2018, and pointed out that in 2018, we should guide and stabilize expectations, strengthen and improve people’s livelihood, and speed up the reform of housing system and long-term mechanism. Next year will be a turning point for the combination of long term mechanism and short-term control, which will further accelerate the implementation and refinement of the relevant long-term mechanism policies. There is no possibility of relaxation in the policy of the property market. But he also said that, as the policy of Beijing and other first-line cities is now very severe, the possibility of a large increase in the policy is not very likely. It is expected that the policy will be maintained to maintain stability next year.
New house: the growth of investment is further declining
For the next year, the new market trend, China Index Research Institute market analyst told reporters, according to the “China real estate industry long-term development dynamic model estimates, in 2018 the China real estate market will appear” traded down, prices stabilized, the characteristics of the new construction, investment in low growth “.
“2018 new investment growth will further decline in view of Yang the collar also agrees, he believes that in addition to the monetary tightening of credit policy, weakening support for new investment growth fell further in the studio to change the currency, and the financing channels of real estate enterprises, strictly limited, higher financing costs etc.. Shed by 6 million sets of reduced to 5 million over the past year, stimulating effect on sales gradually weakened.
In particular, in 2018, there will be significant differences in the trend of different cities. Among them, the turnover of the first tier cities may rise, because the demand is obviously suppressed after the regulation and the market volume is obviously lower than the normal level. Taking Beijing as an example, the monthly average turnover in Beijing is at lower levels below 10 thousand sets after the regulation and control, which is obviously lower than the normal level in 2015. As the regulatory effect of digestion and early accumulation needs, especially the increase in demand for housing, the market will recover slightly. The volume of monthly turnover in 2018 will be higher than the current level, and it will recover to normal level, but the housing price will remain stable overall.
Credit: a 50% decline in a loan transaction and an increase in the threshold of a leveraged purchase
As is known to all, credit has always been an important indicator of the cold and warm property of the property market. “In the absence of leverage, the driving force of real estate will return to the basic level.” Yang said that.
In fact, due to the tight impact of the year’s credit policy, the volume of the 2017 loan market did not perform well. According to the statistics of “earning financial” data, the annual volume of the capital loan market fell by nearly 50% year on year in 2017. In the whole year’s total volume, the decline in volume from the two quarter is particularly evident, mainly due to the “3.17” policy in the first half, which has a great impact on the psychology of the buyers, resulting in a decline in volume.
According to the trend of the volume of the individual loan market in 1-12 months of 2017, it can be seen that the trend of the year is showing a downward trend. Wu Hao, director of the brand operation center of “earning money”, said the bank’s first and two suite rates have canceled discounts this year. Since the beginning of May, the interest rate of the two suite has been adjusted to 20%. In the second half of September, the first suite interest rate has been adjusted to a benchmark or up to 5%. The first set and two sets of interest rates have gone up, all of which have increased the pressure for China real estate.
In addition, as the bank is issuing loans according to the quota this year, the bank loans are issued in the case of the tightening of the overall credit policy.
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